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This report presents the findings of a research project to investigate the feasibility of developing a national trip-end model (NTEM) for New Zealand. The rationale for this is to allow policy issues to be addressed nationally in a consistent manner with trip generation, distribution and mode split considered at the national level.

The research examined large area models from overseas and concluded that while there were a number of parallels with the 'four-stage' modelling paradigm used in urban areas, there were also a number of differences.

If a NTEM were to be developed in New Zealand there are a number of forecasts which could be used for the input variables. On the other hand there is very little trip data available nationally which could be used for calibration so the development of a national model would require a substantial data gathering exercise, either through household or roadside surveys. On the other hand the area between Auckland, Tauranga and Hamilton includes three recently developed models which together comprise a rich source of data. It is therefore suggested that this area serve as the starting point for a NTEM, with traffic growth in other areas forecast on the basis of simple variables.

Keywords: distribution, four stage, freight, gravity model, household travel survey, inter-urban, model, mode split, national, New Zealand, passenger, regional, tourism, transport, trip end, trip generation, zone