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The May 2021 update to employment modelling used to inform Arataki Version 2 is now available.
Arataki used the May 2020 information to compare how various regions and industries might be impacted by COVID-19. Almost a year later, it is clear that New Zealand fared better than forecast in May 2020. Waka Kotahi therefore commissioned an update to the projections through a high-level review of:
The Treasury updated its scenarios in its December Half Year Fiscal and Economic Update (HYEFU) and these new scenarios have been used for the revised projections.
Considerable uncertainty remains about the potential scale and duration of the COVID-19 downturn, for example with regards to the duration of border restrictions, uptake of immunisation programmes. The updated analysis provides us with additional information regarding which sectors and parts of the country are likely to be most impacted. We continue to monitor the situation and keep up to date with other cross-Government scenario development and COVID-19-related work.
The updated modelling has produced employment forecasts for each region and district over three time periods – 2022, 2025 and 2031. The 2022 forecasts carry greater certainty as they reflect the impacts of current events. The 2025 and 2031 forecasts are less certain because of the potential for significant shifts over that time.
Use the buttons to view different scenarios and projections.
You can also access the raw data in a spreadsheet(external link)
If you have any questions about this data, or how to use the dashboard, contact us at arataki@nzta.govt.nz
