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Technology diffusion will have profound impacts on the transport system. This report does not attempt to predict the future, but instead aims to guide policymakers in thinking about how technology could affect the transport sector. 

The focus is on the behaviour of the transport user and how it translates into technology diffusion and then affects transport. As a guide, we developed a behavioural monitoring framework that incorporated several components.

The components included:

• a simplified model of the transport system to focus on important variables
• a diffusion model based on the well-known Bass model
• advice for horizon scanning to identify and understand technologies with potential to affect transport.

We applied the framework to two case studies:

• mobility as a service
• electric vehicles.

These technologies are seeing limited uptake in New Zealand and appear to face challenges.

The research and framework in this report can be applied by the NZ Transport Agency to make judgements about how technology diffusion may affect transport in New Zealand.

Keywords: Bass model, consumer behaviour, electric vehicles, innovation, mobility-as-a-service, policy, technology