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This report presents the findings of the second stage of research looking at regional transport modelling and long-term road planning. The research aimed to define the amount of commercial traffic on the major highways in New Zealand, giving trip numbers at the boundaries of each region, and the likely destination and routes taken by these trips within the region.

Stage One was completed in February 2002. Stage Two was broken down into two parts which were completed in the 2004–2005 and 2006–2007 research programmes.

The Stage Two research can be broken down into five major components of work:

• literature review and New Zealand freight overview
• input-output analysis model
• SATURN traffic model
• gravity model, and
• model comparisons and recommendations.

The three models are essentially three ways of looking at the same problem. Three matrices were derived from each model, giving a robust approach and a means of calibrating the results.

The goal of this research project is to look at the potential methods for creating a national freight model, and to make recommendations on how these methods can be used either singly or in combination to create a robust national freight model.

Keywords: Commercial vehicles, exports, forecasting, freight, gravity model, goods, heavy vehicles, IO, imports, national freight model, New Zealand, SATURN, regions, traffic flows